The New Enthusiast

The New Enthusiast Blazers Preview

October 24, 2009 · 6 Comments

The purpose of this entry is to kill three birds.  I’m not entirely sure how many stones it will take, but after this post you, dear reader of The New Enthusiast, should be able to:

1. Come to the realization that The New Enthusiast weblog is not an archive.

The contributors to the blog are not dead.  They are however busy with prestigious lawyering school, contributing to prestigious baseball nerdbone internet sites and recovering from prestigious airborne illnesses/jacking prestigious (no not prodigious) dongers in Wiffleball Home Run Derby.

2. Discern these electronic pages from others that occasionally address your Portland Trail Blazers.

It seems as though some of the proprietors and many of the commentors on Trail Blazers’ blogs have turned into the Chicago Cubs fans of the NBA. Due to a lackluster preseason performance by the Blazers, much of which has included a frigid Brandon Roy, sloppy ball handling resulting in high turnover numbers and something referred to as “too much talent” many of the blogerati have noticed the sky falling in and around the Rose Quarter area of North Portland after eight freaking practice games!.

Pile the preseason drama onto to the fever pitch of bat shit panic associated with the Roy and Aldridge extensions and the hand wringing over the Blazers’ strange off season and you’d think the Blazers were playing at the corner of Clark and Addison this season.

3. Be ready to enjoy, not only Rudy Fernandez, but other Blazers in their appropriate glory.

Let’s face it y’all this roster is stacked, like a Desperado-era Salma Hayek. Although seemingly a little banged up at the moment, holy crap there is some good young talent on this team and some cool grizzly vets with enough wily charm to make a drag queen blush. Onto the preview.

Juwan Howard

Betcha didn’t think I was going to start this way did you?  Having cut my basketball following teeth on Big 10 basketball while living in Chicago, I can’t help but fondly remembering Juwan, not only because I hated University of Illinois basketball, but because Juwan, a former Michigan Wolverine was the first basketball player I remember being from the city that doesn’t not eat sausage.

Not only am I hopeful that Howard see significant minutes backing up LaMarcus Aldridge because of his Fab Five heritage and his roots in the Chi, Juwan Howard’s minutes which should include his preternatural passing skills and along with the return of Martell Webster from a broken foot, could spell the end of extended cringe inducing minutes of Travis Outlaw.

Andre Miller

Joining Juwan Howard in the “close to the ground” (pronounced, can’t jump) club this season is a man nicknamed Dre from South Central Los Angeles.  While not the most famous Dre from the area, Miller brings real point guard bona fides with him that the Blazers have been looking for since Damon Stoudamire wrapped ganja in metal to put it through a detector of metal (cue cry for help).  While the reviews have been mixed concerning his melding with the current crop of Zers especially Brandon Roy, regardless of whether he starts or comes off the bench, the Miller option sure beats the pants off of seeing Sergio Rodriguez out there every night.

What really is exciting about Dre’s arrival is going to be watching a Blazer who is older than I excel because of his experience and age and not in spite of it.  There is also the possibility of competent fast breaking with Miller that was seemingly impossible last year.  When the 08-09 Blazers ran it often looked disjointed at best and bloody awful at its worst.

Defense wins Championships

The reader can pretty safely assume that when a contributor to the New Enthusiast makes a bold, commonly believed statement in bold print one can expect questions such as Is that true? or How do we know that? to follow.  New Enthusiasts, believers in the Socratic method, do their muthafuckin’ homework, mofos.

Since the opening of training camp Coach Nate McMillan has constantly stressed the need for improvement on defense.  On the strength of their pretty awesome defensive rebounding rates the 08-09 Blazers finished the season 13th in defensive efficiency.

Beginning with the inception of the zone defense during the 99-00 season there has been only one team (2000-01 Lakers) that has won the NBA championship with a lower ranked defense. 7 out of the last 10 champs have had a top 3 defense in terms of efficiency while only 4 of the 10 ten champs were in the top 5 in offensive efficiency.  Offensive efficiency being an area of strength for last year’s team which was best among NBA squads at 113.9 points/100 possessions.

The point? Well, it seems as though the conventional wisdom is right about this one, but having a really efficient offense doesn’t hurt either.  Luckily for the Blazers, teams tend to get better on the defensive end when they become more experienced. With improved defense they could be a contender with that offense that seems to have been constructed by German engineers.

Prediction Time

French national, small forward Nicolas Batum will have 13 French Princes this season, leading the NBA over Tayshaun Prince and Dwayne Wade.

Joel Pryzbilla will lead the Western Conference in “near scuffles” exhibiting his tough guy credentials he has earned amongst Blazers fans.

Pryz will also win the Nietzsche award the NBA gives annually to the player with the highest consonant to vowel ratio in their last name. This award is commonly referred to as the “ubermensch”.

Finally the most important prediction is concerning how many dollar beers I will drink at the Red Flag this season during Blazer games.  The answer is 14 thousand.  And it’s gonna be way fun.  Can’t wait until opening night Tuesday.

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The Most Blunderful Time of the Year

August 17, 2009 · 1 Comment

It’s getting to be my favorite time of year again. That’s right–it’s end-of-the-year awards debate time!

Now, while this post isn’t really about who deserves to win this year’s AL MVP (whatever it means to deserve an MVP Award), lemme quickly say that the answer is Joe Mauer, not Mark Teixiera. Readers interested in the case for Mauer are welcome to read the 2nd, 3rd, 5th, and 8th above links, but lemme try to quickly sum up the arguments as I understand them:

Pro-Teixiera: He is a high-profile player on a high-profile team.

Teixiera is, indeed, having a fine season, putting up his customarily impressive numbers for the best team in baseball. Anecdotally, he fields first base well, though more advanced statistic suggest that this may not be entirely true and anyway first base is pretty much the least valuable defensive position. Plus, his season isn’t that impressive. Look at these lines from five other first basemen in the AL and guess which one is Teixiera, the “presumptive” award-winner:

Player A: 20 HR, 66 RBI, .311/.424/.564, 149 OPS+

Player B: 30 HR, 86 RBI, .288/.385/.562, 145 OPS+

Player C: 28 HR, 94 RBI, .301/.388/.562, 154 OPS+

Player D: 25 HR, 76 RBI, .302/.349./.576 135 OPS+

Player E: 24 HR, 70 RBI, .329/.397/.552 144 OPS+

Hint: Teixiera is Player B. The others are, in order, A) Kevin Youkilis, C) Justin Morneau, D) Kendry Morales, and E) Miguel Cabrera. Not a lot of separation there–I’d be hard pressed to say one is clearly having a vastly better season than the others.

Still, a stud player on a dominant team, yeah sure, that adds up to an MVP in most years. But this isn’t most years.

Pro-Mauer: This isn’t most years because Joe Mauer is having the best offensive season by a catcher–while ably fielding what is widely considered the most difficult defensive position–ever. As in the entire history of the game. Honest. Better than Piazza, or Berra, or Bench. Better than Cochrane, or Pudge, or the other Pudge. Better than Dickey, or Posada, or Campanella. If that isn’t MVP-worthy, then what exactly is?

***

OK, so maybe not all that quickly. But as I said, this post isn’t really about who should win this year, and for a couple of different reasons. First, it doesn’t matter. I mean, undoubtedly it matters to Teixiera and Mauer and anyone else who has a contract kicker that pays them for winning the MVP. But look–there have been voting controversies before, and perceived miscarriages of justice in the past. Just consider these thrilling match-ups from baseballing seasons of yore:

Gordon vs. Williams!

Pudge vs. Martinez!

Vaughn vs. Belle!

Marion vs. Musial!

Yeah, sure, it seems pretty obvious now that the wrong guy took home the hardware, but that doesn’t diminish the performance of the rightfully deserving (there’s that word again) players. If anything, the apparent injustice only shines a more righteous light on the losers, transforming them into mythic folk heroes who are remembered all the more wistfully for the wrong done against them. Kinda like the A-Team.

So while Kepner’s argument may appear to have some merit, I feel pretty certain that a day will come, in the not-so-distant future, when he and those who agree with him will look back on the 2009 season and sheepishly admit that they voted for one of any number of fine first basemen instead of the catcher who had the greatest offensive performance of all-time. The historical perspective seems inescapably vindicating–they’d be aligning themselves with those who voted for Joe Gordon over Ted Williams in ‘42, or gave Barry Zito the 2002 AL Cy Young over Pedro Martinez. Sure, Gordon and Zito got the trophies, but those who voted for them have to live with the private chagrin of failing to recognize greatness when it was right there in front of them.

***

I say “sheepishly” and “chagrin,” but maybe that won’t be the case. Maybe the voters who choose Teixiera over Mauer will never admit their error. Heck, maybe they’ll never even realize they made an error. And that’s what makes the awards debate my favorite time of the year.

What has me so excited is the carnival of mental contortionism that rolls into town right about now as sportswriters and fans begin to speculate about end-of-the-year awards. See, I believe that most folks decide who their personal MVP is, and then construct an argument to justify to themselves the rightness of this “choice.” Actually, I happen to believe that this is the case for many of the so-called defining “truths” of our personal identities–Republican or Democrat, devout or atheist, winged or wingless Balrog. One or the other feels right to us, and it is only after this that we then formulate a reason explaining why it is right. In that way, our effort to convince others of our rightness is really only ever an unending attempt to convince ourselves.

This process of after-the-fact rationalization commits us to positions that, once they are examined, become pretty untenable pretty quickly. To defend our decisions, we have to employ a whole Philosophy 101 syllabus of logical fallacies. Recency Bias? Teixiera just hit a game-winning home run! Availability Bias? Remember that one time Teixiera won a game with a hook-slide at home? Invincible Ignorance? Teixiera’s a great defender, I don’t care what the stats say!

One of the most consterning arguments used by Teixiera supporters is a sort of perverted Appeal to Tradition. They sidestep the question of whether they are right or wrong by citing previous years when the “wrong” player won, believing this frees them to vote for whomever they please. Hey, we got it wrong in the past, why shouldn’t we get it wrong this time?

Of course–and this is where the pro-Mauer, predominantly statnerd crowd (to which, admittedly, I belong) starts getting a bit fallacious itself–of course, they are free to vote for whomever they please. That’s why it’s a vote. It’s the prerogative of each voter to employ whatever criteria*, and to be as flagrantly, gloriously wrong, as they like. There is no “right,” there is no “wrong.” For many voters, there isn’t really so much as an opinion, not really–it’s more like a feeling, or a hunch, or an inkling. A stirring of the soul or a gurgling in the gut. And this is what the statnerd crowd–and, if I’m allowed to stretch a bit here, their like-minded brothers and sisters currently in the White House–have a tough time grokking: logic can change an opinion, but it can’t change a feeling, no matter how lucid or unassailable or inarguable it (the logic) is.

***

In the end, Kepner might be right, but (from my perspective) for the wrong reasons. Teixiera certainly resembles past winners, and there seems to be growing momentum behind his candidacy, much like there was for Kobe Bryant two seasons ago even though he was not, by the numbers, the best player in the NBA. And while I’ve said that it doesn’t really matter, that’s not the same as saying I don’t care. To misquote Bill James, baseball–and sports in general–is all about joy , and there are endless ways to experience joy. For me–and I’d wager for many of our fellow Enthusiasts, too–one of the singular joys of sports is that it gives us the opportunity to think about what we are thinking about. Being a fan means taking part in an unending dispute about what is true, but it also means implicitly agreeing that there is a knowable if elusive Truth. It’s acknowledging the basic pointlessness of sports, but celebrating it all the same, because it is in celebrating something that we give it–and ourselves–meaning. Awards-debate season, to me, is just the ongoing, muddled, communal groping** towards what exactly that meaning is.

Can I get an amen?

*OK, so yeah, sure, there is an official set of criteria for MVP voting…

1. Actual value of a player to his team, that is, strength of offense and defense.
2. Number of games played.
3. General character, disposition, loyalty and effort.
4. Former winners are eligible.
5. Members of the committee may vote for more than one member of a team.

…but they don’t seem all that illuminating to me. How many games? Loyalty to what? Effort?!?

**Communal groping: Oh yeah!

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Idle Musing

August 16, 2009 · 1 Comment

While perusing the new electronic video version of the Oxford English Dictionary*, which I am prone to do on a Sunday afternoon, I noticed that the following two entries had the same video attached:

Those terms are “New Enthusiast demigod” and “man-cheetah”

Here’s the aforementioned video:

When he enters the New Enthusiast Hall of Fame his statue will look something like the 1:20 mark of the video.

*No such version exists to my knowledge.

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The Dog Days

August 15, 2009 · Leave a Comment

August in the Rose City can sometimes feel like the eternal Sunday.  Poetess Susanna Hoffs of the Bangles once referred to Sunday as her “fun day” her “I don’t have to run day”.  Growing up Catholic and schoolgoing, Sundays always represented a curious mix of Hoffs’ fun and Woytek dread (not the name of my family’s dubstep group).  Along with the day off from school, there was homework, mass, going to bed early, my mother watching Masterpiece Theater (or was it theatre).  For a prepubescent boy (which I was until about 15), Sundays weren’t all funning and no running. My point being that there was always the inevitability of Monday on the horizon to kill some of the sheen of the weekend enthusiasm.

August takes on some of these qualities in Portland because the inevitability of drear and soppiness of the rainy season sometimes holds sway over the end of summer.  While my blogmates here at the New Enthusiast have moved or are moving on to better things including wives, prestigious lawyering schools, or writing well received arty things on baseball nerdbone websites, one is left to wonder about the sporting life right here in Portland OR.

As I have taken the assignment of co-covering a Portland Beavers v. Iowa Cubs AAA baseball game later in the week for the Portland Sportsman I can not help but to project some of these lingering  feelings onto some of the forgottens still playing AAA baseball this time of year.

Having attended some 15 professional baseball games at different levels this year(from independent league to MLB) it seems as though this upcoming late August AAA game represents fully this Sunday evening feeling.  The metaphorical Monday being another season of players not realizing their goals of making The Show.  The Portland Beavers roster in particular, being an affiliate of the lowly San Diego Padres, has been raided of nearly all their top prospects.  What is left are some older, more marginal prospects, roster fillers and journeymen.

This is the inevitable nature of AAA baseball especially late in the year when the parent club is no longer competing for a pennant. The Kyle Blanks’s, Cesar Carillo’s, Everth Cabrera’s and Will Venable’s of the organization have been called up with varying degrees of success.  Watching these kinda guys represent the excitement of watching minor league, especially AAA baseball.  Without them, the enthusiasm can be hard to muster.  Luckily for some of the remaining Beavers, roster expansion happens in two short weeks.  The cups of coffee will be dispersed and some of the current Beavers will get a taste of the MLB good life, if potentially only for a month.

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Nerds vs. Jocks

June 25, 2009 · 4 Comments

Given the recent surge in productivity by my fellow enthusiastic webloggers, the occurrence of the NBA draft this evening as well as the release of the screenplay for the Moneyball film, I have decided to address, anecdotally of course, some of my thoughts regarding the rise of rational analysis in the National Basketball Association, and its seemingly quick infiltration into the corridors of power in the league  compared to the stubborn reaction it has received from the baseball establishment.

1.  The self-sustaining principle

I had a conversation recently with the other fellas here at the New Enthusiast about why there is less resistance to rational analysis in basketball as opposed to baseball.   Yes, we do spend time away from our computers.  There were a couple of facts that came up about baseball. I will concentrate on one of those facts; baseball’s old.  Because it’s old it has had many incarnations.  It’s not 1968 anymore although there are some baseball analysts, managers etc. who think it is.  Point being, as in other old bureaucracies and institutions, power gets entrenched and its tendency is to sustain and further entrench itself in the institution (Thanks Max Weber).

Relative to baseball, basketball’s widespread popularity is recent.  Because of this recent ascendancy, the game is  similar (zone defense, no hand checking, impact internationals and LBJ notwithstanding) to the game that made it popular, and the fans and subsequent coaches, management are younger.  One can assume that with this less entrenched power, newer ideas, such as rational analysis of player performance may be more easily adopted.

2. Economic constraints

Here’s yet another fact; collective bargaining agreements (CBA’s) are complicated.  That being said, I understand that there is one large difference in the CBA’s of the NBA and MLB.  That difference is the salary cap.  Unlike the large disparity in payrolls in Major League Baseball, the payrolls in the NBA only vary by about 40 million dollars and many of those dollars are doubled because of the luxury tax. Because of these constraints, owners can’t go spending their money willy nilly (don’t tell the Knicks). Management may be more willing to use rational analysis to find the undervalued, non-jean models and defensive specialists yearning to breathe free.

3. The draft

As in most forms of analysis, it is always best to triangulate methods. One of the best scenes in Michael Lewis’ book Moneyball is when Paul DePodesta gets introduced to the scouts before the 2002 draft. Billy Beane sets out his constraints for whom they will be selecting in the draft. The scouts don’t like it. Billy does this because he had been talked out of picks in previous years in favor of young toolsy baseball players. Beane didn’t like that, mostly because they reminded him of himself as a baseballer. The answers, in drafting, especially in the NBA, lie somewhere in the middle of the geeks and the scouts.

This year’s draft in the NBA brings into stark relief what the NBA draft has become since the One-and-done rule took affect in the NBA and really since they started taking high schoolers. It looks more like a really mini-version of the MLB draft. Without more than one sure bet, there is no real consensus on who is going to be a good basketball player.  Blake Griffin and Ty Lawson are a couple of analysts’ favorites.  Aesthetes and potentialists really like Brandon Jennings and Ricky Rubio. Regardless it is clear that Jennings, Rubio and DeMar Derozan fall into the archetype of the toolsy guys that scouts love while Lawson, Griffin, and to a lesser extent Hansbrough, DeJuan Blair, guys with serious college track records are the darlings of the statnerds.

My long-winded point is that the NBA draft is very important. Management doesn’t want to mess it up. Some organizations such as the Houston Rockets and Portland Trail Blazers unabashedly triangulate with scouts and statnerds to try and get it right. Their track records prove that they are pretty good at it too.

4. Playoffs

“My shit doesn’t work in the playoffs. My job is to get us to the playoffs. What happens after that is fucking luck.”

–Billy Beane

Like the addage of having to manufacture runs in the MLB playoffs, there are equally common conceptions of what it takes to win in the NBA playoffs.


Teams have to have a superstar, go to player to win the title.

It takes a dominant big man to win the title.

and so on…

Luckily for the reader I’m not going to get into specific examples, but it is my inclination that, given the amount of opportunities NBA basketball players have, luck plays a lesser role in the NBA playoffs compared to their MLB playoff cousin.  It seems as though given the larger number of opportunities players have in a single game much less over a seven game series, players will tend to  play more like themselves compared to players given the limited opportunities October baseball provides.

Basically, I think that the rational analysis merde could work in the playoffs especially with the all enthusiastic lineup of Billups, Rudy, Battier, Rashard Lewis, Tiago Splitter

Oh and in case you missed this classic Nerd vs. Jock case study

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Matinee Idle

June 24, 2009 · Leave a Comment

For reasons unknown and unknowable, the New Enthusiast is experiencing an unprecedented groundswell of new readership of late. First off, we’d like to say, enthusiastically, “Welcome, likeminded ladies and gentledudes!”

Second, and we have this on very good authority, when it comes giving the crowd what they want, the best way to keep laissez-ing la bon temps to roulez is to post more frequently than semi-fortnightly. Unfortunately, we don’t exactly have anything of substantial substance ready to share, so instead here are a few unripened fruits plucked from our idle minds:

IDLE! The Red Sox recently celebrated their Major League record 500th consecutive home sellout. That’s great! Strangely, the fans celebrated it, too. Huh? That seems a bit…perverse. Now, revenue from ticket sales is (for the most part) funneled back into player salaries, so good attendance is tied to continued on-field success. But something tells me that isn’t exactly what the team is thanking the fans for, since it’s the sellout which has allowed the Sox to raise the price of an average ticket for 14 straight years until 2009, hiking the cost to the highest level in the majors*. Now that’s an impressive streak!

*Pre-Yankees Stadium and Citifield data.

IDLE! Ronny PaulinoRon Paul. I’m just saying…

IDLE! The harshest decrescendo of awesomeness possible in a three word span? Vacation Bible School! If you’re a kid hearing it, that phrase starts off real, real good, but gets real sucky in a hurry.

IDLE! So there is a bit of a kerfuffle about Manny Ramirez playing in the minors before his 50-game suspension is up. While it does seem like this loophole is letting Manny skirt around his punishment, TNE is more curious about whether Manny will be eligible for the Triple A All-Star Game on July 15th in Portland’s PGE Stadium.

IDLE! Speaking of Portland, howzabout a “Portland Stadium Financing Debacle Update”? In case you need a quick recap, lemme sum up:

1. Way back in 2007, megasuperrichdude Merritt Paulson buys the Timbers, a United Soccer League* team, and the Beavers, the Triple A affiliate of the San Diego Padres. The teams currently share PGE Park in lovely downtown Portland**

1. Paulson uses the promise of unimaginable windfall from a Major League Soccer team*** to extort tens of millions of public dollars for his stadium upgrade.

2. In exchange, he promises to build a new baseball stadium in the city, contingent on the city securing the land.

3. Due to civic resistance, negligent oversight, and general nincompoopery, the city drops the ball on finding a location for the new stadium.

4. Paulson keeps all the public money for the soccer stadium, doesn’t have to build baseball stadium, and…

5…is now free to shop the Beavers around the “Portland area” to see if any suburb might be willing to foot the bill for a new stadium. Hello, Hillsboro!

Well played, trusted civic leaders!

*Wikipedia informs me that this is the second tier on the American Soccer Pyramid. That is a much cooler nickname than is warranted.

**Just ask the New York Times.

***Sarcasm.

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Viva La Blanks!

June 23, 2009 · 4 Comments

Because you’re the sort of Astute Reader who makes it his (or her) business to periodically check up on us here at The New Enthusiast, then you might very well also be the sort of Informed Fan who caught wind, last Friday, of man-tower Kyle Blanks’s promotion to San Diego from their (i.e. San Diego’s) Triple-A affiliate, the Beavers of Portland, Ore.

More than its great coffee, myriad farmers’ markets, and roving bands of New York Times travel writers*, the greatest pleasure in the Rose City this spring has been watching Monsieur Blanks jack dongers out of Portland’s PGE Park — something I’ve been able to do (i.e. watch Blanks) with considerable frequency in my capacity as Official Baseballing Journalist for the-little-website-that-could, the Portland Sportsman. Some might even go so far as to say that I’ve developed a bit of a man crush on KB. “Some,” I say; having been born and raised in New England — where the bucklehat remains a viable fashion option — I endeavor always to distance myself from such vulgar expressions. Still, it’s true: Blanks possesses a certain je ne sais quoi that I, for one, am not able to comprends entirely but enjoy nevertheless.

*I mean, seriously: bam, bam, bam, bam, bam, bam.

While my instinct is to greedily hoard each and every little thing that brings me pleasure, I’ve learned from years of Disney animated features that sometimes, if you truly love something, you’ve got to set it free. Furthermore, I have little choice in the matter: unbelievably, San Diego GM Kevin Towers isn’t in the business of consulting middling interweb journalists like yours truly on personnel decisions involving his organization’s top prospects. That being the case, I’ve decided to accept the facts and turn these lemons (i.e. Blanks’s departure from Portland) into lemonade (i.e. by introducing my fellow Americans to the Big Fun that is Kyle Blanks).

I don’t know what y’alls opinion is of calls-to-action, but if it doesn’t rankle you excessively, I encourage any and all of you to get yourselves in front of a television box for one of the Padres’ upcoming games at Seattle, during which series Blanks will very probably make an appearance at designated hitter, if not elsewhere.

“Why would I do such a thing?” maybe you’re asking, nor do I fault you for doing so.

While seeing is most definitely believing when it comes to matters Blanksian, there are perhaps some salient facts which might serve to enrich the Reader’s Kyle Blanks Experience. For example, it would benefit anyone to know that:

  • Kyle Blanks is ginormous. He’s 6′ 6″ and listed alternately at 270 and 285 lbs, though I’ve heard from entirely reliable, and equally anonymous, sources, that he might be closer to three bills. Fact: that’s a big man.
  • Kyle Blanks is a real prospect. As a 22-year-old in the Pacific Coast League this year he’s batted .283/.393/.485 while playing in what has generally rated as a pitcher’s park (PGE has sported park factors of 938, 950, and 960 over the last three years, respectively, according to this year’s installment of Baseball Prospectus). And while his contact rate is low-ish this year (27.0 K%), it’s been better in the lower levels (18.3 K% last year in Double-A, 21.1 K% two years ago in Single-A). And again, he’s only 22.
  • Kyle Blanks puts the pain in Au Bon Pain*. I’m serious, ask anyone**.
  • Owing to his size, Blanks is almost assuredly destined for first base-dom somewhere in his future. Only problem is, a kinda good baseballer already mans that posish for San Diego. As such, Blanks has played a number of Triple-A games in left field, where — anecdotally, at least — he’s looked fine. How that translates from PGE’s relatively friendly confines to the mostly treacherous ones at Petco is another question. In his debut, he made two plays on two chances — one out of his zone, according to Hardball Times.
  • Blanks defeated Levi’s Jeans in a copyright infringement lawsuit for their (i.e. Levi’s) “Livin’ Large” ad campaign from the early 90s, citing the fact that, if anyone were “Livin’ Large”, it was definitely he, Kyle Flippin’ Blanks, and not some jerks in Silver Tabs or whatever*.

*Denotes probable lie.
**Don’t do this. You’ll look like a fool.

As of Sunday morning*, Blanks has a single and two strikeouts in 4 major league plate appearances — good for a .224 wOBA. But if there were a metric called something like Joy Factor, Blanks would probably have like a gazillion. Enjoy, is all I’m saying.

*He also played Sunday and went 0-for-2 with a BB and K.

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No Clear Option

May 30, 2009 · 1 Comment

So it seems some other sports blogger has noticed the recent aesthetic abasement of the NBA.

Simmons ties a lot of the game’s woes back to poor officiating, and in many ways he’s right. As he points out, many of today’s prominent officials are, well, old. Kinda really old, in some cases. He suggests that these officials might have difficulty following the action of the game, a problem which would only be exacerbated during the playoffs, when the NBA prefers to assign its most experienced, and therefore most senior, refs to the games of greatest importance.

While senescence may account for some of the problem of consistently enforcing the rules, also think about this: the rules have changed. Like, for instance, it’s hard to imagine any 1975 vintage player hacking it in the NBA of today. Doesn’t matter if that player was as kinesthetically wondrous as Dr. J or an immobile wall of sopping manflesh like Billy Paultz, any player from that era would have difficulty adjusting to the current game, and one reason is because the rules are subtly but vastly different. The three-pointer, 8-second backcourt violations, the crab dribble–it takes a lifetime of practice to perfect and embody these things at a professional level. Yet the NBA expects Dick Bavetta, whose been an official since 1975, to call the game the same way as Zach Zarba, who was born in 1975. Fans who grew up watching Oscar Robertson have a different view of what constitutes a traveling violation than those who accustomed to Michael Jordan–might not refs harbor the same sort of biases?

Another issue Simmons notes is the seeming paradox that, despite the league’s specific measures to do so, there hasn’t been an apparent reduction in excessively physical play. There are a couple of reasons this might be true, though Simmons uses a faulty analogy to highlight the league’s failures:

Finally, the logic behind “flagrant fouls” was that it was supposed to prevent … (drumroll, please) … flagrant fouls! Do you feel like that mission has been accomplished? Imagine your local police force telling you, “Since our crackdown on home robberies, home robberies have doubled in the past three years. We couldn’t be happier!”

Well, no, these aren’t exactly the same scenarios. It might be more apt to say that the police had previously dealt with burglaries by pretending they didn’t occur, and are now more aggressively combating the problem–which could plausibly result in a greater number of reported incidents.

Also, it shouldn’t be surprising that a strict prohibition actually results in an increase in the activity targeted by the prohibition. For instance, take the NBA’s new rule that if a player accumulates a 7th technical foul during the playoffs, he is suspended from the next game. As many commentators have pointed out, this puts the league in an awkward position–having to suspend, say, Lebron James or Kobe Bryant during the finals because of something they did in an earlier round. Dwight Howard was assessed his 6th technical on a call that was pretty weak sauce–and the league agreed, rescinding the technical foul after reviewing the game. Still, the NBA couldn’t be real pleased with the prospect of having to suspend one of its marquee player during the playoffs.

This is reminiscent of the illogic at the heart of nuclear deterrence. When Eisenhower and his Secretary of State John Foster Dulles unveiled the “New Look,” they placed massive nuclear retaliation at the center of America’s foreign policy, the thought being that the Soviets would never instigate hostile activities in the face of total annihilation. As smart dude John Lewis Gaddis pointed out, this wasn’t a credible policy–the U.S. would never follow through on “less-than total challenges,” which left the U.S.S.R. free to do as it wished, like intervening in the Hungarian Revolution of 1956. It’s argued that in some ways the threat of massive retaliation emboldened the Soviets, as they increasingly raised the stakes while calling America’s bluff.

The NBA finds itself in a situation similar to the U. S. of A. in the ’50s. The league really, really doesn’t want to have to follow through on its threat, and one way to avoid having to do so is to be much more lenient in assessing technical fouls. Players probably realize this, too–Kobe Bryant, et alii basically have impunity from the refs throughout the playoffs. That’s one way in which stricter policing of an activity can actually increase the activity’s frequency.

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A Cav in a China Shop

May 27, 2009 · 1 Comment

Recently there was a post over at the Goliath to our David of blogs freedarko.com challenging their dear readers’ memories concerning the actual happenings of basketball contests versus how the NBA wants us to remember them. I was immediately reminded of the “Where will amazing happen this year?” commercial featuring Dwayne Wade.   Now, I freely admit that my memory lapses are frequent and my recall ain’t what it used to be. In other words I couldn’t tell you from which year that Dwayne Wade layup/Gerald Wallace impression is, but that commercial immediately brings up in my mind the 2006 NBA finals and brings up into my mouth my last meal from my stomach.

I have a visceral reaction to the mention of the ‘06 Heat/Mavs series because, at least in my memory, it was like watching the NBA die again after rising from death during those ‘04 and ‘05 finals when it was teams playing against one another or at least “Big Threes” playing against teams or other “Big Threes”. After those fun and competitive series it seemed as though the basketball black hole strategy was back.

I don’t want to come off as some sort of curmudgeon or traditionalist.  I have thoroughly enjoyed watching Orlando launch trey bombs and Hedo Turkoglo run the point forward in ways even the Prez appreciates.  It has also been pleasureable watching the high-wire, clusterpooping, head scratchers that are both benches in the Western Conference finals (in different ways of course).

Less enthusiastically and with alarm it seems that the beautiful basketball period of Lebron James’ career is officially over or at least on hiatus in the second half of these games. Being confronted with the continued ineptitude of his teammates on the offensive end (Delonte West a slight exception in game 4), we viewers of hoops have been subjected to the back up and drive, basketball bull-rush version of Lebron on seemingly every possession.  He inevitably ends up on the free throw line just like Dwayne Wade did in June of ‘06.

The interesting part about this is that at least during Game 4 the strategy did not help them win and although outcomes often take a backseat to other more ethereal concerns here at The New Enthusiast, hopefullly the Cavs can find again Lebron’s missing beauty at the end of Game 5 Thursday night. Hell, they might even pull out a victory.

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Feeling Greene

May 19, 2009 · 2 Comments

What follows is actually about sports. I apologize sincerely to our dozen readers.

Among the (I’m sure) many things he did today, Rob Neyer wrote this (a response to this) on his blog in re sometime Cardinal shortstop and surfer-looking dude Khalil Greene, who’s been struggling this season — both with his lack of performance and, apparently, issues of self-abuse:

He needs to play better?

We still think he’s capable of playing?

What, are we still living in the Dark Ages? What’s next, maybe a good bleeding? Or some wisdom teeth removed? Is there anyone outside of St. Louis who doesn’t realize that Greene needs a long break from baseball, during which he engages in some serious talk therapy and perhaps a bit of medication.

I do not mean to make light of this situation. Khalil Greene was a good player for four seasons, a league-average hitter and a decent enough shortstop. And then, suddenly and shockingly, he was not. Suddenly, he went from being worth $10 million per season to being worth nothing. As a ballplayer, I mean.

I know that’s harsh, but it’s the truth. Still, one might have assumed that Greene’s 2008 season was a fluke, the product of some terrible convergence of randomness or (more likely) an injury that wasn’t enough to impress his manager but was enough to limit his abilities on the field.

Now, though? Greene apparently looked fine in spring training with the Cardinals, and yet now he’s playing worse than ever. Now, you simply can’t say things like “He needs to play better” or “We still think he’s capable of playing.”

Really? Why would you think that, exactly? John Mozeliak is not a foolish man. But the notion that Greene’s once-impressive skills are going to suddenly snap back into place is approximately as reasonable as believing in fairies and unicorns and leprechauns who wear little pointy shoes.

My guess is that Neyer might have uberpitcher Zack Greinke in the back of his mind as he writes this — the same Donald Zackary “Zack” Greinke who left baseball for almost a year to better understand and treat social anxiety disorder and depression.

If Greene’s brain chemicals are f-ed then, yes, it is advisable that he seek medical counsel.

Here’s the thing, though: thanks to the baseballing nerdbones at Hardball Times, we can see that Khalil Greene is actually playing better now than he has in a long time. When adjusting for the random variation of batted balls, Greene’s line of 202/283/303 (AVG/OBP/SLG) actually ought to look alot more like 286/359/421.*  That line would constitute his best performance since placing second in Rookie of the Year voting in 2004 while batting 273/349/446 for the Padres of San Diego.

The most likely culprit? An unsustainably low BABIP of .212 (compared to a league average of ca .300). Greene has always sported low-ish BABIPs, yes, but that is due most likely to having played half of his games in the terrible, cavernous Petco Park. His recent move to the slightly less terrible and cavernous Busch Stadium should only help the situation.

My second guess** is that Khalil Greene’s self-abuse issues are a reaction to what he perceives as poor performance — not to fielders making plays on well-hit balls. And if that is the case, then Greene has nothing to worry about. If his BABIP begins marching towards league average, as it’s almost sure to do, his slash stats will make a comparable march towards respectability.

So, the question is: what is he worried about?

Well, my third guess is that Khalil Greene doesn’t read baseballing nerdbone websites like yours truly does and yours truly’s co-bloggers do and yours truly’s other favorite people in this world do. In fact, outside of Kansas City’s Brian Bannister, there seems to be very few other baseballers who make it their bidness to acquaint themselves with the little lower layer of baseballing analysis. I say that, of course, without intimate knowledge of even one baseballer. Still, I’ve never been one to reserve my generalizations, no matter how sweeping.

The point of all this is, if Khalil Greene needs to do anything, it is not “play better,” as Tony LaRussa has suggested — or even, probably, “seek treatment.” The real answer seems to be “get nerdier.”

And that’s good advice for anyone!

– Carson

*Which, for the non-baseball fans who read the blog, is good.

**My first was the thing about Neyer and Greinke.

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